Population Aging

by

Lynda Anderson

Introduction

The age of a population, or group of people, can change over time and become younger or older. “Population aging” refers to the process whereby older people account for a proportionally larger share of the total population. It is sometimes referred to as “demographic aging” or “global aging.” Increases in life expectancy are clearly a successful result of improvements in public health and medicine, yet the aging of the population has profound effects on social, economic, health, and political systems that must adapt to the changing age structure. The increase in the numbers of older adults, often accompanied by a slowed growth in the number of children, will have dramatic consequences for public health, economic growth, housing, workforce, and social and health-care services. At the same time, it may inspire new policies and programs designed to promote health, independence, and well-being across the life cycle and seize on other positive aspects of aging. Population aging is a global phenomenon. Analysis of the aging trends in the United States, for example, reveals changes in the proportion of the population over the age of 65 and the important growth within the older population. The proportion of adults aged 65 years and older stood at 4.1 percent in 1900, rose to 12.9 percent in 2009, and is projected to increase to 20 percent by the year 2030. The fastest-growing segment of the total population is people aged 80 years and over, with a growth rate twice that for those 65 years and older, and almost four times that for the total population. As of 2010, this group represents 10 percent of the older population and will more than triple by 2050.

General Overviews

Goulding, et al. 2003 provides an introduction to trends in aging in the United States and globally, including descriptions of demographic and epidemiologic transitions and implications for public health. Gavrilov and Hauveline 2003 offers a concise synopsis of key terms; describes a range of measurement approaches, demographic determinants, and forecasts; and examines the implications of an aging population. Crimmins 2004 provides a very useful and comprehensive overview of trends in health and aging aimed at a public health audience. National Institute on Aging 2007 gives an overview of population trends across nations and describes nine important challenges related to biomedical, social, and economic concerns of aging. Kinsella and He 2009, as part of a US Census Bureau series on the world’s older populations, examines past, current, and projected proportions and growth rates of older populations, and provides detailed socioeconomic statistics for both developed and developing nations. Finally, United Nations 2009 offers a comprehensive report on global trends in population aging, covering demographic determinants, indicators of population aging, demographic profiles, and socioeconomic characteristics underscoring the effects of rural areas, literacy, and workforce issues.

• Crimmins, Eileen M. 2004. Trends in the health of the elderly. Annual Review of Public Health 25:79–98.

  DOI: 10.1146/annurev.publhealth.25.102802.124401E-mail Citation »

  Provides a nice overview of trends in health for a public health audience and summarizes the implications of an aging population.

• Gavrilov, Leonid A., and Patrick Heuveline. 2003. Aging of population. In International encyclopedia of population. Edited by Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll, 32–37. New York: Macmillan Reference.

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  Provides concise definitions and indicators for measuring various aspects of population aging. Nice introductory document describing demographic determinants and notable features of population aging, and offering forecasts and implications of aging from a variety of perspectives.

• Goulding, Margie, M. E. Rauch, M. Rogers, and Suzanne M. Smith. 2003. Public health and aging: Trends in aging—United States and worldwide. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 52.6: 101–106.

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  Brief data report covering basic information on trends in aging, demographic and epidemiologic transitions in aging using several data sources. Available online.

• Kinsella, Kevin, and Wan He. 2009. An aging world: 2008 International Population Report P95/09-1. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

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  The US Census Bureau’s ninth cross-national report focused on people 65 years and older. The publication provides data on current and projected numbers, proportions, and growth rates of older populations, plus socioeconomic statistics for both developed and developing nations. Comparable data are included for fifty-two nations when the categories are reasonably consistent; in 2008 these fifty-two nations represented 77 percent of the world’s population.

• National Institute on Aging. 2007. Why population aging matters—A global perspective Publication No. 07-6134. Bethesda, MD: US Department of Health and Human Services.

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  Examines the challenges to population aging using data from the US Census Bureau, United Nations, and Statistical Office of the European Communities, as well as from regional surveys and scientific journals. The report identifies and organizes around nine trends: an aging population; increasing life expectancy; rising numbers of the oldest old; growing burden of noncommunicable disease; aging and population decline; changing family structure; shifting patterns of work and retirement; evolving social insurance systems; and emerging economic changes.

• United Nations. 2009. World population ageing 2009 New York: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.

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  This comprehensive report, third in a series connected to the Second World Assembly on Ageing, is organized into four major chapters focusing on: demographic determinants highlighting the rates and extent of growth of population aging; indicators of population aging and the importance of the potential support ratio (dependency ratio); demographic profiles calling attention to progressive aging of this population segment and its feminization; and socioeconomic characteristics related to the effects of rural areas, literacy, and workforce issues.