Crisis Bargaining
- LAST MODIFIED: 07 January 2025
- DOI: 10.1093/obo/9780199743292-0326
- LAST MODIFIED: 07 January 2025
- DOI: 10.1093/obo/9780199743292-0326
Introduction
Crisis bargaining occurs when two parties negotiate to determine the distribution of a disputed good, and the failure to reach an agreement on this issue results in war. Thus, much of the international relations scholarship on crisis bargaining is an effort to explain the onset of war. Traditional neorealist and neoliberalist theories of international politics imply that understanding war requires attention to the factors that make it difficult to reach a settlement short of conflict, but using a noncooperative bargaining model to develop theories about the causes of war was not commonplace until the 1980s and 1990s. During this time, scholars in the rationalist tradition, including Robert Powell, James Morrow, and James Fearon, offered important contributions to a general understanding of bargaining failure and war onset. In particular, Fearon developed the now canonical bargaining model of war to describe the two main conditions under which bargaining would break down into inefficient conflict: information asymmetries and commitment problems. Fearon’s work opened the door for other scholars to identify ways that states overcame information and commitment problems, including by sending credible signals of resolve, developing sound reputations, or employing certain bargaining strategies. Success in crisis bargaining is not simply identifying an acceptable settlement and avoiding war, however. States also seek to emerge victorious from crises, by either coercing their opponents into making concessions or by deterring following through on threats. Therefore, scholars have explored the factors that explain successful coercion in crisis bargaining, in addition to identifying the correlates of peace overall. Of course, many of the factors that facilitate a peaceful crisis outcome overall also explain which side gets a more favorable settlement, including the ability of states to signal resolve effectively. Nevertheless, understanding peace and understanding crisis victory are distinguishable efforts—and they are discussed separately in this article. These topics have been studied via formal and empirical analyses. In the 1980s and 1990s, most research on crisis bargaining employed formal models to support their arguments, sometimes accompanied by case studies to illustrate their validity in the real world. As the theories developed, however, so did serious efforts to empirically test them, via rigorous econometric methods and survey experiments. Given the challenges of empirically evaluating theories in which core explanatory variables are inherently unobservable, however, empirical analyses in this field face significant challenges.
Journal Overview
Most of the scholarship on crisis bargaining has taken the form of journal articles, which are mostly published in prominent political science journals that publish across the subdisciplines or in international relations–specific outlets, including some that are solely focused on peace and conflict studies. Several important works on crisis bargaining were published in the American Political Science Review, especially in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, as the field of inquiry was developing. Another prominent general interest journal, the American Journal of Political Science, published several articles on crisis bargaining, especially surrounding the debate about mutual optimism and war. Among the international relations journals, International Organization has published several of the seminal works on crisis bargaining, including Fearon 1995 (cited under Rationalism) and Powell 2006 (cited under Commitment Problems), as well as more recent debates about nuclear weapons in coercive diplomacy. International Studies Quarterly, another international relations–specific outlet, has featured many important pieces on information problems and crisis bargaining. Among the journals that focus exclusively on peace and conflict studies, the Journal of Conflict Resolution has showcased articles that cover the full range of topics in the crisis bargaining field, including work on signaling, domestic politics, and bargaining strategies. The Journal of Peace Research also regularly features articles on international crises. While not exhaustive, the listed journals are the most prominent outlets for research on crisis bargaining.
American Journal of Political Science. 1957–.
The flagship journal of the Midwest Political Science Association, the American Journal of Political Science (AJPS) is a well-respected generalist publication in the discipline.
American Political Science Review. 1906–.
Since 1906, the American Political Science Review (APSR) has been the discipline’s leading source of peer-reviewed articles and review essays from across the various subfields of political science, including international relations.
International Organization. 1947–.
A leading journal in international relations, International Organization (IO) covers a variety of important topics in the discipline, including crisis bargaining.
International Studies Quarterly. 1957–.
The official journal of the International Studies Association, International Studies Quarterly (ISQ) publishes work that engages with theoretical or empirical puzzles in international politics.
Journal of Conflict Resolution. 1957–.
As a leading forum for research on inter- and intrastate conflict, the Journal of Conflict Resolution (JCR) has published work on practically every subtopic within the crisis bargaining literature.
Journal of Peace Research. 1964–.
As a major outlet for debate on peace, war, and security more broadly, the Journal of Peace Research (JPR) regularly publishes articles related to international crises.
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