Criminology Community Change and Crime
by
John R. Hipp, Alyssa Whitby Chamberlain
  • LAST REVIEWED: 08 March 2017
  • LAST MODIFIED: 29 June 2011
  • DOI: 10.1093/obo/9780195396607-0072

Introduction

Community change and crime employs a dynamic perspective, linking ecological changes to changes in crime. More specifically, geographic places are considered entities that can change over time, and these changes can have important implications for various social and economic processes. Changes in a variety of structural characteristics have been linked to changes in crime, including economic and social resources, residential stability, immigration, and racial composition. Ecological changes are examined at both a micro and a macro level. Micro-level research may involve examining changes in an area as small as a street segment or as large as a neighborhood or police precinct area. Macro-level research may involve evaluating the impact of changes that occur across an entire city, county, or region. The issue of community change is further complicated when considering the fact that communities not only change over time, but the areas within which these communities are embedded are also changing, and these changes occur simultaneously. Variations in these surrounding areas may have a direct impact on levels of crime in a particular area. The growing evidence suggesting a link between neighborhood change and crime has also been applied to several policy initiatives. Programs such as Moving to Opportunity and Gautreaux are examples of such policies, in which inner-city residents are relocated to suburban areas with ample social and economic resources. The range of issues examined in the community change and crime literature is vast, but these studies provide a unique insight into understanding the role that the ecology of place plays in the amplification of crime.

General Overviews

A number of published texts and articles provide a general overview of the factors associated with neighborhood change, decline, and crime. Although not addressing crime specifically, Grigsby, et al. 1987 examines how changes in the socioeconomic structure of a neighborhood influence resident decision making and subsequently how those decisions translate into changes in the conditions of the neighborhood itself. Taub, et al. 1984 focuses on the consequences of the racial/ethnic composition of a neighborhood and how it changes over time. Bursik and Grasmick 1993 provides a general theoretical overview of the causes of neighborhood crime and examines specifically how fear of crime may result in dynamic neighborhood change. Fagan 2008 provides a comprehensive overview of various factors that may lead to neighborhood change and crime as well as a review of existing theory that may explain these mechanisms of change. Reiss and Tonry 1986 investigates variations in crime in different types of neighborhoods and analyzes the manner in which neighborhoods both influence and are influenced by crime.

  • Bursik, Robert J., Jr., and Harold G. Grasmick. 1993. Neighborhoods and crime: The dimensions of effective community control. New York: Lexington Books.

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    Explains the linkages between social disorganization theory and neighborhoods and crime; examines how fear of crime is related to neighborhood dynamics and change.

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    • Fagan, Jeffrey. 2008. Crime and neighborhood change. In Understanding crime trends. Edited by Arthur S. Goldberger and Richard Rosenfeld, 81–126. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

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      Provides a review of research examining structural factors and processes that lead to changes in crime both within and between neighborhoods.

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      • Grigsby, William, Morton Baratz, George Galster, and Duncan Maclennan. 1987. The dynamics of neighborhood change and decline. Progress in Planning 28:1–76.

        DOI: 10.1016/0305-9006(87)90011-0Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

        Overview and analysis of the economic and physical decline of urban neighborhoods in America.

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        • Reiss, Albert, and Michael Tonry. 1986. Communities and crime. Crime and justice: An annual review of research. Vol. 8. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.

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          Examines the manner in which neighborhoods affect and are affected by crime, and discusses ways neighborhoods can alter crime patterns.

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          • Taub, Richard P., D. Garth Taylor, and John Dunham. 1984. Paths of neighborhood change: Race and crime in urban America. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.

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            Studies eight neighborhoods in Chicago, with a survey of 400 respondents in each neighborhood.

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            Data Sources

            Studies examining neighborhood change and crime require data on both neighborhood characteristics and geographic crime patterns. In general, data sources pertaining to neighborhoods come from various US census sources. The US Census Bureau provides decadal data on demographic, housing, social, and economic characteristics of the US population at a variety of geographical units, ranging from the size of a census block to as large as a county or state region. The American Community Survey, beginning in 2010, captures census data at annual intervals (although the smaller geographic units such as tracts and block groups are provided as five-year averages). Although the American Community Survey (ACS) will provide data at more frequent time points, other data sources, such as GeoLytics, provide projection data, which are sometimes used to capture neighborhood change between census years. Mapping neighborhood data is another common technique used to depict geospatial relationships. Geographic Information Systems is specialized software for mapping this data and provides free, multiple downloadable data files (shapefiles). Additional shapefiles used for mapping are available from GeoLytics and from Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding Reference, available from the US Census Bureau. Another data source for community-level data is the National Neighborhood Indicators Partnership; this is an inventory of local community data that captures a range of neighborhood conditions among participating cities. Although neighborhood-level crime data are sometimes available through local police agencies or organizations, there is currently no central data source for neighborhood-level crime. A number of data sources, however, exist that provide citywide data. Crime data can be extracted from the National Crime Victimization Survey, although these data are based on crimes not officially reported to the police. In addition to these data sources, there are a number of neighborhood-based surveys providing a rich source of information on both resident attitudes and characteristics and the neighborhoods within which these individuals reside, including the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods and the Seattle Neighborhoods and Crime Project.

            Neighborhoods

            Central to theories of communities and crime are the physical and social conditions of neighborhoods. Earlier research on neighborhoods and crime frequently adopted a static approach, bolstering support for theories that held that variation in crime rates across neighborhoods were stable over time, and these differences could be attributed to variation in ecological conditions, which also remained stable over time. More recently, however, theorists have pointed to the importance of accounting for the dynamic nature of ecological characteristics. Perhaps one of the most influential theoretical contributions is Wilson 1987, which describes the causes and consequences of significant increases in urban poverty, including increases in social disorganization and crime. Bursik 1986 and Bursik 1988 assert that it is important to adopt a dynamic perspective when examining the effects of social disorganization on crime. Miethe and Meier 1994 and Wilcox, et al. 2003 provide a theoretical framework for applying routine activities theory in longitudinal ecological analyses. Theories of continuity and change have also been applied to neighborhood studies: Sampson 1993 proposes integrating life course theories with examinations of place. Taylor 2001 critiques this perspective using empirical evidence from Baltimore. Skogan 1986 argues that fear of crime can foster change in neighborhoods.

            • Bursik, Robert J., Jr. 1986. Ecological stability and the dynamics of delinquency. Crime and Justice 8:35–66.

              DOI: 10.1086/449119Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

              This study points out that Clifford Shaw and Henry D. McKay’s social disorganization model was built upon the assumption of a stable ecological process. It then tests this assumption with decadal data from Chicago from 1930 to 1970.

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              • Bursik, Robert J., Jr. 1988. Social disorganization and theories of crime and delinquency: Problems and prospects. Criminology 26.4: 519–551.

                DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1988.tb00854.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                An important theoretical exposition of social disorganization theory that helped reinvigorate the research in this tradition. Suggests the importance of taking a dynamic view regarding crime and social disorganization.

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                • Miethe, Terance D., and Robert Frank Meier. 1994. Crime and its social context: Toward an integrated theory of offenders, victims, and situations. Albany: State Univ. of New York Press.

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                  This monograph lays out a theoretical perspective of the routine activities theory in a spatial context. Suggests the importance of a possible downward spiral for neighborhoods.

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                  • Sampson, Robert J. 1993. Linking time and place: Dynamic contextualism and the future of criminological inquiry. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 30.4: 426–444.

                    DOI: 10.1177/0022427893030004005Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                    Proposes dynamic contextualism as a theoretical paradigm. Thus, it links place with history and the life course perspective.

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                    • Skogan, Wesley G. 1986. Fear of crime and neighborhood change. In Communities and crime. Vol. 8. Edited by A. J. Reiss and M. Tonry, 203–229. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.

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                      Suggested that fear of crime itself can be important for fostering change in neighborhoods.

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                      • Taylor, Ralph B. 2001. Breaking away from broken windows: Baltimore neighborhoods and the nationwide fight against crime, grime, fear, and decline. Boulder, CO: Westview.

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                        A full-length monograph in which the author uses data from the city of Baltimore. The results provide mixed evidence for the broken windows theory, with some results supportive but others contradicting some key hypotheses.

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                        • Wilcox, Pamela, Kenneth C. Land, and Scott A. Hunt. 2003. Criminal circumstance: A dynamic multi-contextual criminal opportunity theory. New York: Walter de Gruyter.

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                          Full-length monograph exposition of a theoretical model that is both longitudinal and multilevel. Incorporates the routine activities insights with an environmental perspective.

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                          • Wilson, William J. 1987. The truly disadvantaged: The inner city, the underclass, and public policy. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.

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                            Key text describing a structural historical process in which the outcome is neighborhoods of residents living in concentrated disadvantage, leading to social isolation, a breakdown of social norms, and subsequent generation of socially disorganized communities.

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                            Change in Crime

                            Changes to the social and economic characteristics of neighborhoods and the impact of these changes on crime rates are a persistent theme in studies that examine neighborhood change and crime. Research has directly examined the role that changing neighborhood characteristics play on changing crime rates (Taylor and Covington 1988). Gottdiener and Hutchison 2006 provides a general overview of various social factors and how they can impact the development and safety of neighborhoods. Bursik and Webb 1982 presents evidence of a threshold effect with regard to the impact of community changes on delinquency. Bursik and Grasmick 1993 contends that factors associated with economic deprivation can have both a direct and an indirect effect on delinquency. Others, such as Harrell and Roman 1994, have attempted to parse out the rate and succession of indicators of neighborhood change and their effect on crime. In contrast, Schmid 1960 finds that certain types of crime may be stable over time. Robinson, et al. 2003 examines how fear of crime might affect residents’ perceptions of being victimized over time, and Taylor and Covington 1993 examines the role of neighborhood change on fear of crime. Freudenburg 1986 examines the importance of cohesive ties on crime within communities.

                            • Bursik, Robert J., Jr., and Harold G. Grasmick. 1993. Economic deprivation and neighborhood crime rates, 1960–1980. Law and Society Review 27.2: 263–283.

                              DOI: 10.2307/3053937Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                              An examination of economic deprivation on the crime rate in Chicago in 1960 and 1980, this study finds that while economic deprivation has both an indirect and a direct effect on delinquency, the indirect effects were greater than the direct effects.

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                              • Bursik, Robert J., Jr., and Jim Webb. 1982. Community change and patterns of delinquency. American Journal of Sociology 88.1: 24–42.

                                DOI: 10.1086/227632Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                Uses decadal data for seventy-four Chicago communities from 1940 to 1970 and tests the Shaw-McKay assumption of constant delinquency in neighborhoods. The authors find this only holds between 1940 and 1950 but has not held since 1950. Suggest a threshold effect of increasing delinquency in neighborhoods transitioning to majority nonwhite.

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                                • Freudenburg, William R. 1986. The density of acquaintanceship: An overlooked variable in community research? American Journal of Sociology 92.1: 27–63.

                                  DOI: 10.1086/228462Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                  Important theoretical statement on the possible importance of cohesive ties for affecting crime rates. Tests the model on four small communities in western Colorado over a ten-year period, one of which experienced large population growth.

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                                  • Gottdiener, Mark, and Ray Hutchison. 2006. The new urban sociology. 3d ed. Boulder, CO: Westview.

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                                    A full-length monograph examining the role of social factors on the development of metropolitan areas.

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                                    • Harrell, Adele, and Caterina Gouvis Roman. 1994. Predicting neighborhood risk of crime. Washington, DC: Urban Institute.

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                                      This study attempts to predict increases in crime that are associated with changes in neighborhood structure and composition; a component of this analysis involves delineating the rate and succession of neighborhood change and indicators of neighborhood decomposition.

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                                      • Robinson, Jennifer B., Brian A. Lawton, Ralph B. Taylor, and Douglas D. Perkins. 2003. Multilevel longitudinal impacts of incivilities: Fear of crime, expected safety, and block satisfaction. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 19.3: 237–274.

                                        DOI: 10.1023/A:1024956925170Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                        Studies individuals not households sampled in fifty street blocks at two points in time one year apart. Is able to distinguish between change in psychological perceptions and those that occur at the aggregated block level.

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                                        • Schmid, Calvin F. 1960. Urban crime areas: Part II. American Sociological Review 25.5: 655–678.

                                          DOI: 10.2307/2090139Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                          Studies census tracts in Seattle at two time periods (1939–1941 and 1949–1951). Demonstrates high stability in crime rates for certain types of crime over this decade.

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                                          • Taylor, Ralph B., and Jeanette Covington. 1988. Neighborhood changes in ecology and violence. Criminology 26.4: 553–589.

                                            DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1988.tb00855.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                            This seminal work examines the association between dynamic neighborhood change and changes in violence in Baltimore neighborhoods between 1970 and 1980; the authors find that regardless of whether neighborhoods experience gentrification or become more impoverished, rates of violent crime increased.

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                                            • Taylor, Ralph B., and Jeanette Covington. 1993. Community structural change and fear of crime. Social Problems 40.3: 374–397.

                                              DOI: 10.1525/sp.1993.40.3.03x0084fSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                              Studies the effect of unexpected neighborhood changes on fear of crime. It surveys residents in sixty-six Baltimore city neighborhoods in 1980, based on change since 1970.

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                                              Social Disorganization Theory

                                              One of the most prominent theories of crime in neighborhoods is social disorganization theory. The theory has fallen in and out of favor over time, and although most empirical tests of it have used cross-sectional data, it contains an inherently longitudinal component. The early exposition of the theory by Clifford Shaw and Henry D. McKay (Shaw and McKay 1942) adopted an ecological framework. Although a key insight of the theory was a general equilibrium in which change is reproduced in a stasis across neighborhoods in which certain high crime neighborhoods remain so over time, there is nonetheless a fundamental dynamic nature to the theory. Bursik and Webb 1982 emphasizes this dynamic nature and ties it to the ecological theorizing of Amos H. Hawley in his classic work conceptualizing neighborhoods as the units within a larger ecology (Hawley 1950). Robert J. Sampson and W. Byron Groves advance the theory considerably with their classic work (Sampson and Groves 1989) that specifies the mechanisms through which these neighborhood structural characteristics likely work. The early work McKenzie 1970 (originally published in 1923) examines a number of characteristics affecting neighborhoods, such as social mobility, socioeconomic status, and the impact of religious and punitive organizations within Columbus, Ohio, neighborhoods.

                                              • Bursik, Robert J., Jr., and Jim Webb. 1982. Community change and patterns of delinquency. American Journal of Sociology 88:24–42.

                                                DOI: 10.1086/227632Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                Major statement of the importance of social disorganization theory. Highlights the importance of the dynamic nature of the theory and links it to the human ecology model of authors such as Amos H. Hawley. Considers both the consequences of these changes for crime rates as well as how crime rates might change neighborhood characteristics.

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                                                • Hawley, Amos H. 1950. Human ecology: A theory of community structure. New York: Ronald.

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                                                  Classic work laying out the macro perspective of the human ecology perspective.

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                                                  • McKenzie, Roderick Duncan. 1970. The neighborhood: A study of local life in the city of Columbus, Ohio. New York: Arno.

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                                                    Series of articles published as a book describing change in the neighborhoods in the city of Columbus, Ohio. Originally published 1923.

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                                                    • Sampson, Robert J., and W. Byron Groves. 1989. Community structure and crime: Testing social-disorganization theory. American Journal of Sociology 94:774–802.

                                                      DOI: 10.1086/229068Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                      Important paper pointing out the need to test the mechanisms posited by social disorganization theory. Although only a cross-sectional study, an important contribution was attempting to measure some of these mechanisms. This paper spawned a large wave of research exploring the posited mechanisms of social disorganization theory.

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                                                      • Shaw, Clifford, and Henry D. McKay. 1942. Juvenile delinquency and urban areas: A study of rates of delinquents in relation to differential characteristics of local communities in American cities. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.

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                                                        Key statement of social disorganization theory.

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                                                        The Effect of Crime on Neighborhood Characteristics

                                                        A growing body of research has focused on the possibility that crime may play a role in how neighborhood characteristics change. This research is devoted to teasing apart the directionality between neighborhood change, fear, and crime. Schuerman and Kobrin 1986 uses neighborhood data in Los Angeles over a twenty-year period and contends that levels of crime may impact the manner in which neighborhood structural characteristics change. Hipp 2010 shows strong effects of crime on the change in neighborhood characteristics using neighborhood data from several cities over a decade. Markowitz, et al. 2001 explores this question using data on households nested in neighborhoods over three waves, and Taylor 1999 also measures the effects of social and physical incivilities on household perceptions. Taylor 1995 provides a nice overview of theories describing the possible effect of crime on various characteristics of neighborhoods.

                                                        • Hipp, John R. 2010. A dynamic view of neighborhoods: The reciprocal relationship between crime and neighborhood structural characteristics. Social Problems 57.2: 205–230.

                                                          DOI: 10.1525/sp.2010.57.2.205Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                          Uses data on the census tracts in thirteen cities over a ten-year period to test and find that crime appears to have a stronger effect on the change in various structural characteristics than the reverse.

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                                                          • Markowitz, Fred E., Paul E. Bellair, Allen E. Liska, and Jianhong Liu. 2001. Extending social disorganization theory: Modeling the relationships between cohesion, disorder, and fear. Criminology 39.2: 293–319.

                                                            DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2001.tb00924.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                            Uses three waves of the British Crime Survey to estimate the relationships between disorder, burglary, cohesion, and fear of crime. Tests whether fear of crime has a feedback effect on cohesion and therefore crime.

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                                                            • Schuerman, Leo, and Solomon Kobrin. 1986. Community careers in crime. Crime and Justice 8:67–100.

                                                              DOI: 10.1086/449120Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                              Studies two-tract clusters in high crime parts of Los Angeles from 1950 to 1970. It looks at changes in delinquency but also considers the possibility that levels of crime in neighborhoods might affect how the neighborhood’s structural characteristics might change.

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                                                              • Taylor, Ralph B. 1995. The impact of crime on communities. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 539:28–45.

                                                                DOI: 10.1177/0002716295539001003Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                This study provides a nice overview of theories describing the possible effect of crime on various characteristics of neighborhoods. Outcomes are separated into psychological (i.e., attachment, satisfaction, territorial behavior, intent to move), behavioral (local participation, mobility), and economic (home values, delinquency).

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                                                                • Taylor, Ralph B. 1999. Crime, grime, fear, and decline: A longitudinal look. Research in Brief. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice.

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                                                                  This study examines the longitudinal effects of social and physical incivilities on residents’ fear of crime, changes in crime, and changes in neighborhood makeup.

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                                                                  Race and Crime

                                                                  The disproportionate rate of victimization, arrests, and incarceration among nonwhites, particularly African Americans, in the United States has been well documented. Researchers have attempted to provide an explanation for the race-crime relationship, although only a handful of studies have examined this relationship longitudinally. Hannon and DeFina 2005 finds that the effects of poverty and violent crime are not racially specific. Paula D. McClain directs her efforts toward understanding higher rates of homicide among African Americans (McClain 1989). Wilson and Taub 2006 studies racial/ethnic composition’s capacity for impacting perceptions of crime change. Economic factors, such as poverty, are fairly stable predictors of crime, and certain structural characteristics appear to predict increases in poverty as shown in Galster and Mincy 1993. Bursik 1986 asks about possible reciprocal effects between the presence of nonwhites and delinquency and finds that the presence of nonwhites increased delinquency and that the presence of delinquency also led to an increase in nonwhites. Green, et al. 1998 focuses on the causes of racially motivated crime: one study focuses on white on black violence, whereas Hipp, et al. 2009 examines the role of changing racial composition on inter- and intragroup violence, finding that intragroup violence is more prevalent than intergroup violence.

                                                                  • Bursik, Robert J., Jr. 1986. Delinquency rates as sources of ecological change. In The social ecology of crime. Edited by J. M. Byrne and R. J. Sampson, 63–74. New York: Springer-Verlag.

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                                                                    Study of Chicago finds that higher rates of delinquency in 1960 increase the number of nonwhites in the neighborhood in 1970. It also increases the socio-economic status (SES) level, which may represent a gentrifying effect.

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                                                                    • Galster, George C., and Ronald B. Mincy. 1993. Understanding the changing fortunes of metropolitan neighborhoods, 1980 to 1990. Housing Policy Debate 4.3: 303–352.

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                                                                      This study examines the effects of variations in neighborhood economic trends on increasing poverty rates in African American, Hispanic, white, and racially mixed neighborhoods; only job availability, average age of residents, and the proportion of nonmarried households consistently predicted an increase in neighborhood poverty levels.

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                                                                      • Green, Donald P., Dara Z. Strolovitch, and Janelle S. Wong. 1998. Defended neighborhoods, integration, and racially motivated crime. American Journal of Sociology 104.2: 372–403.

                                                                        DOI: 10.1086/210042Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                        Frequently cited paper testing the defended neighborhood theory and the consequence of racially motivated intergroup violence by whites against blacks. Uses community districts as the unit of analysis (average population of about 125,000). It is important to highlight that although this is frequently cited as a study of “neighborhoods,” these units are arguably far too large to be classified as neighborhoods.

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                                                                        • Hannon, Lance, and Robert DeFina. 2005. Violent crime in African American and white neighborhoods: Is poverty’s detrimental effect race-specific? Journal of Poverty 9.3: 49–67.

                                                                          DOI: 10.1300/J134v09n03_03Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                          Tests and finds that the effects of poverty on violent crime are relatively racially invariant with Cleveland census tracts from 1990–2000.

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                                                                          • Hipp, John R., George E. Tita, and Lyndsay Boggess. 2009. Inter- and intra-group violence: Is violent crime an expression of group conflict or social disorganization? Criminology 47.2: 521–564.

                                                                            DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2009.00150.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                            Looks at the effect of changing racial/ethnic composition of census tracts in Los Angeles on the generation of intergroup violence between blacks and Latinos. Introduces an approach that correctly computes the rates of intergroup events.

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                                                                            • McClain, Paula D. 1989. Urban black neighborhood environment and homicide: A research note on a decade of change in four cities—1970 to 1980. Urban Affairs Quarterly 24.4: 584–596.

                                                                              DOI: 10.1177/004208168902400406Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                              Compares homicide rates in majority black tracts in 1970 and 1980 for Detroit, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Los Angeles.

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                                                                              • Wilson, William J., and Richard P. Taub. 2006. There goes the neighborhood: Racial, ethnic, and class tensions in four Chicago neighborhoods and their meaning for America. New York: Knopf.

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                                                                                Ethnographic study of four neighborhoods in Chicago and how they change over time.

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                                                                                Unemployment and Crime

                                                                                The relationship between unemployment and crime has been extensively explored, although the results have been somewhat ambiguous. While many studies have found a positive relationship between crime and unemployment, others contest these findings (Kohfeld and Sprague 1988). Examining the relationship between unemployment and crime over a twelve-year period, Kohfeld and Sprague 1988 finds that the relationship between unemployment and crime is large and significant and asserts that policy makers should concentrate efforts on targeting employment programs in areas with high levels of unemployment. Examining the effect of unemployment on crime rates among both black and nonblack communities, Almgren, et al. 1998 finds that joblessness and family disruption are associated with higher rates of homicide. Bollinger and Ihlanfeldt 2003 examines the spatial effects of unemployment on crime, finding that crime actually decreases neighborhood employment rates.

                                                                                • Almgren, Gunnar, Avery Guest, George Immerwahr, and Michael Spittel. 1998. Joblessness, family disruption, and violent death in Chicago, 1970–90. Social Forces 76.4: 1465–1493.

                                                                                  DOI: 10.2307/3005842Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                  Studies seventy-five Chicago community areas in 1970 and 1990 and finds that high rates of joblessness and family disruption lead to higher homicide rates over time and that these relationships have strengthened in both black and nonblack communities over time.

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                                                                                  • Bollinger, Christopher R., and Keith R. Ihlanfeldt. 2003. The intraurban spatial distribution of employment: Which government interventions make a difference? Journal of Urban Economics 53.3: 396–412.

                                                                                    DOI: 10.1016/S0094-1190(03)00007-XSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                    Studies annual data on 299 tracts in the Atlanta metro area. Finds that higher crime in the city reduces the level of employment in a tract. Uses one-year lags.

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                                                                                    • Kohfeld, Carol W., and John Sprague. 1988. Urban unemployment drives urban crime. Urban Affairs Quarterly 24.2: 215–241.

                                                                                      DOI: 10.1177/004208168802400203Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                      Studies burglary and robbery rates in St. Louis tracts over the 1970–1982 period and finds that unemployment rates had strong positive effects on these two types of crime.

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                                                                                      Residential Mobility and Crime

                                                                                      Residential mobility involves the examination of population flows into and out of urban neighborhoods. Research investigating the relationship between residential mobility and crime attempts to understand how the in and out movements of various populations affect neighborhood structural characteristics and crime. A number of longitudinal studies have been conducted to understand the relationship between residential mobility, neighborhood change, and crime. Dugan 1999 and Xie and McDowall 2008 examine the role that victimization may play on resident decisions to move. Katzman 1980 finds that crime may play a larger role with regard to the in movement of residents to urban neighborhoods compared to the effect crime may have on out movement. Similarly, Hipp, et al. 2009 finds that increases in homicide in one year result in increased out mobility during the following year. In an effort to understand what factors may affect residents’ decisions to move, Lee, et al. 1994 examines how both objective and subjective changes in neighborhood context can influence mobility. Sampson and Sharkey 2008 analyzes how residential mobility decisions may impact both the larger ecological context of a particular neighborhood as well as how these decisions might also reinforce racial inequality. The role of increasing violent crime and socioeconomic factors are also associated with population flows out of urban neighborhoods, as studied in Morenoff and Sampson 1997.

                                                                                      • Dugan, Laura. 1999. The effect of criminal victimization on a household’s moving decision. Criminology 37.4: 903–930.

                                                                                        DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1999.tb00509.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                        Studies the effect of victimization on residential mobility decisions with the National Crime Survey over several years (1986–1990).

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                                                                                        • Hipp, John R., George E. Tita, and Robert Greenbaum. 2009. Drive-bys and trade-ups: Examining the directionality of the crime and residential instability relationship. Social Forces 87.4: 1777–1812.

                                                                                          DOI: 10.1353/sof.0.0184Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                          Uses annual data in Los Angeles and tests and finds that higher crime in one year leads to more out mobility the following year and that this effect is heightened in tracts with high levels of racial/ethnic heterogeneity. However, there is no evidence that turnover in home owners increases crime the following year. It also finds higher violent crime reduces property values the following year.

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                                                                                          • Katzman, Martin T. 1980. The contribution of crime to urban decline. Urban Studies 17:277–286.

                                                                                            DOI: 10.1080/00420988020080591Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                            This study examines the extent to which crime affects residential mobility from urban centers, finding that crime is more influential with regard to in-migration as opposed to out-migration. As high-income households migrate out of areas with higher levels of crime, crime in these areas increases, further repelling households from moving into these areas, thus accelerating neighborhood decline.

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                                                                                            • Lee, Barrett, R. S. Oropesa, and James W. Kanan. 1994. Neighborhood context and residential mobility. Demography 31.2: 249–270.

                                                                                              DOI: 10.2307/2061885Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                              Examines the extent to which the context of urban neighborhoods—based on both subjective and objective domains—influences residential mobility; the study finds that age, length of residence, home ownership, and perceptions of residential turnover had a direct effect on mobility, while the manner in which residents view and experience their neighborhood may have an indirect impact on mobility.

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                                                                                              • Morenoff, Jeffrey D., and Robert J. Sampson. 1997. Violent crime and the spatial dynamics of neighborhood transition: Chicago, 1970–1990. Social Forces 76.1: 31–64.

                                                                                                DOI: 10.2307/2580317Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                Tests the role of homicide rates and socioeconomic disadvantage in triggering population decline in Chicago tracts from 1970 to 1990. The authors also compare this population decline for whites and blacks separately.

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                                                                                                • Sampson, Robert J., and Patrick Sharkey. 2008. Neighborhood selection and the social reproduction of concentrated racial inequality. Demography 45.1: 1–29.

                                                                                                  DOI: 10.1353/dem.2008.0012Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                  This study examines the impact of residential mobility decisions on the broader ecological structure of racial inequality. The authors find that variation in neighborhood attainment follows along racial/ethnic lines; non–African Americans left neighborhoods with increasing African American populations, while changes to racial mixing were less important to African Americans.

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                                                                                                  • Xie, M., and D. McDowall. 2008. Escaping crime: The effects of direct and indirect victimization on moving. Criminology 46.4: 809–840.

                                                                                                    DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2008.00133.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                    Extends the findings of the Laura Dugan study with the same National Crime Survey to test and find that indirect property crime victimization that involves neighbors also stimulates moving.

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                                                                                                    Property Values and Crime

                                                                                                    A number of studies have examined the association between crime and property values, consistently concluding that crime has a negative effect on property values. Schwartz, et al. 2003 estimates an elasticity between crime and property values and concludes that decreases in crime resulted in increases in property values. Similarly, Fagan, et al. 2006 and Tita, et al. 2006 find that housing prices are sensitive to changes in crime rates. Immergluck and Smith 2006 examines the relationship between crime rates and foreclosures, while Saegert, et al. 2002 and Schwartz 1999 examine the impact of restoration efforts and new construction, which have been found to increase property values while simultaneously reducing crime. Neighborhoods with higher rates of crime are also likely to have lower rates of appreciation, as shown in Kim 2003. In contrast, however, Temkin and Rohe 1998 finds that changes in neighborhood property values are not affected by crime rates.

                                                                                                    • Fagan, Jeffrey, Garth Davies, and Jan Holland. 2006. The paradox of the drug elimination program in New York City. Georgetown Journal on Poverty Law and Policy 8.3: 415–460.

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                                                                                                      Examining the effectiveness of the drug elimination program on crime and violence in public housing sites between 1985 and 1996, this study finds that housing prices were affected by changes in crime rates, particularly in neighborhoods that were experiencing a tipping point in crime.

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                                                                                                      • Immergluck, Dan, and Geoff Smith. 2006. The impact of single-family mortgage foreclosures on neighborhood crime. Housing Studies 21.6: 851–866.

                                                                                                        DOI: 10.1080/02673030600917743Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                        The initial paper focusing on the relationship between foreclosures and crime rates in neighborhoods.

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                                                                                                        • Kim, Sunwoong. 2003. Long-term appreciation of owner-occupied single-family house prices in Milwaukee neighborhoods. Urban Geography 24.3: 212–231.

                                                                                                          DOI: 10.2747/0272-3638.24.3.212Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                          Studies the appreciation of home values in 111 neighborhoods in Milwaukee from 1971 to 1993, and finds that higher crime rates reduce the appreciation rates.

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                                                                                                          • Saegert, Susan, Gary Winkel, and Charles Swartz. 2002. Social capital and crime in New York City’s low-income housing. Housing Policy Debate 13.1: 189–226.

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                                                                                                            This research presents findings that suggest that new housing construction and the removal of condemned or rundown housing can enhance the social capital of residents, thereby increasing local capacity to control and prevent crime.

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                                                                                                            • Schwartz, Alex. 1999. New York City and subsidized housing: Impacts and lessons of the city’s $5 billion capital budget housing plan. Housing Policy Debate 10.4: 839–877.

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                                                                                                              Analyzing the impact of increased resource allocation to the development and restoration of affordable housing in New York City between 1986 and 1997, this study finds that changes in housing prices were associated with decreases in rates of violent crime.

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                                                                                                              • Schwartz, Amy E., Scott Susin, and Ioan Voicu. 2003. Has falling crime driven New York City’s real estate boom? Housing Policy Debate 14.1: 101–135.

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                                                                                                                Using hedonic modeling, this study finds that decreases in crime result in increases in property values, estimating an elasticity of 0.15 between violent crime and property value.

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                                                                                                                • Temkin, Kenneth, and William M. Rohe. 1998. Social capital and neighborhood stability: An empirical investigation. Housing Policy Debate 9.1: 61–88.

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                                                                                                                  Studies Pittsburgh households in 1980 and 1990 and tests and finds no effect of changing crime rates on changes in a neighborhood’s average property values.

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                                                                                                                  • Tita, G. E., Tricia L. Petras, and Robert T. Greenbaum. 2006. Crime and residential choice: A neighborhood level analysis of the impact of crime on housing prices. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 22.4: 299–317.

                                                                                                                    DOI: 10.1007/s10940-006-9013-zSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                    Finds that an increase in violent crime rates leads to lower housing values.

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                                                                                                                    Gentrification, Revitalization, and Crime

                                                                                                                    Gentrification is generally defined as the renewal and rebuilding of a particular urban area or neighborhood and is accompanied by the in-migration of middle-class, affluent (white) residents. Similarly, revitalization involves reviving the conditions in a particular area, although it is not necessarily associated with an influx of middle-class residents. Despite this distinction, these concepts and their relationship to crime will be discussed together. Generally, gentrification and revitalization efforts are aimed at neighborhoods with high rates of crime, with the hope that changes in neighborhood characteristics will yield a decrease in crime. Ahlbrandt and Brophy 1975 provides a comprehensive overview of the relationship between urban decline and neighborhood revitalization. However, Lee and Mergenhagen 1984 asserts that revitalization itself may not be the catalyst for neighborhood change but might occur in neighborhoods that were already undergoing patterns of change. Beauregard 1990 finds that gentrification can have a powerful effect on crime rates, as does Van Wilsem, et al. 2006; whereas McDonald 1986 contends that the benefits of gentrification on changing crime rates may not affect property crime and may only moderately affect violent crime.

                                                                                                                    • Ahlbrandt, Roger S., Jr., and Paul C. Brophy. 1975. Neighborhood revitalization: Theory and practice. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.

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                                                                                                                      A full-length monograph examining neighborhood decline and revitalization.

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                                                                                                                      • Beauregard, Robert A. 1990. Trajectories of neighborhood change: The case of gentrification. Environment and Planning A 22.7: 855–874.

                                                                                                                        DOI: 10.1068/a220855Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                        Studies gentrification in four neighborhoods in Philadelphia during the postwar period.

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                                                                                                                        • Lee, Barrett A., and Paula M. Mergenhagen. 1984. Is revitalization detectable? Evidence from five Nashville neighborhoods. Urban Affairs Review 19.4: 511–538.

                                                                                                                          DOI: 10.1177/004208168401900407Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                          This research examines models of revitalization, finding that trends associated with the onset of revitalization are often continuations of already existing patterns of neighborhood change, not necessarily changes initiated as a result of revitalization efforts.

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                                                                                                                          • McDonald, Scott C. 1986. Does gentrification affect crime rates? In Communities and crime. Edited by Albert J. Reiss, Jr., and Michael Tonry, 163–202. Crime and Justice 8. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.

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                                                                                                                            Using crime data from 1970 to 1984 to examine the effect of gentrification on crime, this study finds that gentrification results in a decrease of violent crime rates but has no effect on property crime rates.

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                                                                                                                            • Van Wilsem, Johan, Karin Wittebrood, and Nan Dirk De Graaf. 2006. Socioeconomic dynamics of neighborhoods and the risk of crime victimization: A multilevel study of improving, declining, and stable areas in the Netherlands. Social Problems 53.2: 226–247.

                                                                                                                              DOI: 10.1525/sp.2006.53.2.226Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                              Studies neighborhood change in neighborhoods in the Netherlands from 1994 to 1998 by combining victimization data with census data. The authors find that victimization is higher in disadvantaged neighborhoods and in neighborhoods undergoing gentrification.

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                                                                                                                              Businesses and Crime

                                                                                                                              Crime and neighborhood disorder may have a negative impact on businesses by deterring customers and directly affecting profitability. Ultimately, businesses are forced to close, and this can further disadvantage neighborhoods. Only a handful of studies have examined the interplay between crime and businesses longitudinally. Greenbaum and Tita 2004 examines the impact of violent crime on service-related establishments, finding that increasing crime reduces the number of establishments in a particular neighborhood. Aldrich and Reiss 1976 attempts to understand how crime affects the racial composition of business owners, finding that crime does not have an effect on the race of business owners leaving neighborhoods, but rather racial change in business owners is the result of the entry of minority business owners.

                                                                                                                              • Aldrich, Howard, and Albert J. Reiss Jr. 1976. Continuities in the study of ecological succession: Changes in the race composition of neighborhoods and their businesses. American Journal of Sociology 81.4: 846–866.

                                                                                                                                DOI: 10.1086/226144Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                A study of the racial change in the business owners of neighborhoods in three US cities finds that crime does not differentially affect the race of owners leaving a neighborhood. Instead, racial change in owners occurs due to differential entry of minority business owners.

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                                                                                                                                • Greenbaum, Robert T., and George E. Tita. 2004. The impact of violence surges on neighbourhood business activity. Urban Studies 41.13: 2495–2514.

                                                                                                                                  DOI: 10.1080/0042098042000294538Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                  Studies crime and business patterns in zip codes in five large US cities between 1987 and 1994 and finds that increasing violence reduces service-related establishments in low-crime neighborhoods.

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                                                                                                                                  Incarceration and Crime

                                                                                                                                  The incarceration boom in the United States over the past several decades has been well documented. A consequence of the growing prison population is the increase in prisoners returning home. In the early 21st century, an extensive amount of research has been conducted to determine how returning inmates will affect the communities to which they return and whether the concentration of parolees should be considered an ecological factor affecting neighborhood crime. Clear 2007 provides a comprehensive overview of how US prison policies have further disadvantaged neighborhoods and increased crime, and Clear, et al. 2001 examines the spatial effects of removing and returning offenders on neighborhoods characterized by high incarceration rates. Hipp and Yates 2009 finds that parolees do increase neighborhood crime rates. As Fagan, et al. 2003 asserts, neighborhoods with higher rates of incarceration are subject to more intense police scrutiny, which may increase the detection of criminal activity among residents and reentrants alike. Rose and Clear 1998 examines how incarceration is a form of coerced mobility that may have other implications on the structural characteristics of a neighborhood. Taylor, et al. 2009 explores the effect of arrest rates on subsequent delinquency rates in Philadelphia police districts. National Research Council 2007, Petersilia 2003, and Travis and Waul 2003 focus on the challenges parolees face upon reentry, including reintegrating into neighborhoods.

                                                                                                                                  • Clear, Todd R. 2007. Imprisoning communities: How mass incarceration makes disadvantaged neighborhoods worse. Oxford and New York: Oxford Univ. Press.

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                                                                                                                                    An analysis of how US incarceration policy further disadvantages impoverished neighborhoods and increases crime.

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                                                                                                                                    • Clear, Todd R., Dina R. Rose, and Judith Ryder. 2001. Incarceration and the community: The problem of removing and returning offenders. Crime and Delinquency 47.3: 335–351.

                                                                                                                                      DOI: 10.1177/0011128701047003003Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                      Focuses on the spatial impact of removing and returning offenders to neighborhoods experiencing high rates of incarceration. Studies thirty-nine Tallahassee, Florida, residents (including ex-offenders) who live in two high-incarceration neighborhoods.

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                                                                                                                                      • Fagan, Jeffrey, Valerie West, and Jan Holland. 2003. Reciprocal effects of crime and incarceration in New York City neighborhoods. Fordham Urban Law Journal 30:1551–1602.

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                                                                                                                                        This study finds that neighborhoods with higher rates of incarceration encourage more intense police scrutiny, thereby contributing to increases in recidivism; the authors assert from these findings that incarceration itself is an endogenous ecological factor in disadvantaged neighborhoods.

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                                                                                                                                        • Hipp, John R., and Dan K. Yates. 2009. Do returning parolees affect neighborhood crime? A case study of Sacramento. Criminology 47.3: 619–656.

                                                                                                                                          DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2009.00166.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                          Uses monthly data on parolees returning to block groups in Seattle over the 2003–2006 period. Although returning parolees increase the tract crime rate, this effect is moderated in neighborhoods with greater residential stability or greater numbers of voluntary organizations, or more single-parent households.

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                                                                                                                                          • National Research Council. 2007. Parole, desistence from crime, and community integration. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

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                                                                                                                                            Findings from a research panel on the effects of returning parolees in neighborhoods.

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                                                                                                                                            • Petersilia, Joan. 2003. When prisoners come home: Parole and prisoner reentry. Oxford and New York: Oxford Univ. Press.

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                                                                                                                                              Key monograph describing the challenges faced by ex-offenders returning to neighborhoods.

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                                                                                                                                              • Rose, Dina R., and Todd R. Clear. 1998. Incarceration, social capital, and crime: Implications for social disorganization theory. Criminology 36.3: 441–479.

                                                                                                                                                DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1998.tb01255.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                Initial exposition of the theory that incarceration can create a forced “residential mobility” that itself increases the social disorganization of a neighborhood. It also can negatively affect family life.

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                                                                                                                                                • Taylor, Ralph B., Philip W. Harris, Peter R. Jones, Doris Weiland, R. Marie Garcia, and Eric S. McCord. 2009. Short-term changes in adult arrest rates influence later short-term changes in serious male delinquency prevalence: A time-dependent relationship. Criminology 47:657–697.

                                                                                                                                                  DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2009.00158.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                  Studies the effect of quarterly adult arrest rates on later serious delinquency rates in twenty-three Philadelphia police districts. Although short (quarterly) lags found the negative relationship posited by the community coercion theory, lags of about a year and a half found the positive relationship posited by the community justice model, the ecological version of strain theory, and an ecological version of the procedural justice model.

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                                                                                                                                                  • Travis, Jeremy, and Michelle Waul, eds. 2003. Prisoners once removed: The impact of incarceration and reentry on children, families, and communities. Washington, DC: Urban Institute.

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                                                                                                                                                    Edited volume focusing on the challenges faced by communities that must integrate returning prisoners.

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                                                                                                                                                    Trajectory Methodology

                                                                                                                                                    Trajectory models are a specific statistical technique used for modeling longitudinal data that allows each observation in a sample to have its own trajectory of change over time. These models are particularly useful when examining crime and neighborhood change, as it allows for the easy detection and clustering of trends over time. One of the first examples of utilizing a latent trajectory model to detect crime trends across neighborhoods can be found in Bursik and Grasmick 1992, an analysis of delinquency in Chicago neighborhoods. Kubrin and Herting 2003 uses these techniques to demonstrate that neighborhood factors can predict both neighborhood disadvantage and homicide over time, and Kikuchi and Desmond 2010 uses them to study changes in burglary and vehicle theft. Harries 2004 examines trajectories of violence across Baltimore neighborhoods. Boggess and Hipp 2010 extends the approach by estimating a dual latent trajectory model, finding that although violent crime predicted residential instability trajectories over time, residential instability did not predict trajectories of violent crime over time. Other scholars have extended the trajectory models with growth mixture models that test for different trajectories for types of neighborhoods. Weisburd, et al. 2004 uses a mixture model to detect trajectories of distributions of crime in Seattle. Yang 2010 clusters neighborhoods and finds that disorder trends are clustered in particular areas or hot spots. Groff, et al. 2010 uses growth mixture models and finds that the trajectories of small street segments may have no effect on the trajectories of adjacent areas. The exploratory approach of clustering trajectories into various classes (known more broadly as growth mixture models) contains numerous potential pitfalls that suggest caution when interpreting results, as outlined by Skardhamar 2010.

                                                                                                                                                    • Boggess, Lyndsay N., and John R. Hipp. 2010. Violent crime, residential instability, and mobility: Does the relationship differ in minority neighborhoods? Journal of Quantitative Criminology 26.3: 351–370.

                                                                                                                                                      DOI: 10.1007/s10940-010-9093-7Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                      Uses a dual latent trajectory model of annual data of tracts in Los Angeles from 1992 to 1997 and finds that whereas the initial level of violent crime increases the trajectory of residential instability in subsequent years, residential instability in most neighborhoods has no impact on the trajectory of violent crime over time. The one exception was that stable highly Latino communities do exhibit a protective effect against violence.

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                                                                                                                                                      • Bursik, Robert J., Jr., and Harold G. Grasmick. 1992. Longitudinal neighborhood profiles in delinquency: The decomposition of change. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 8.3: 247–263.

                                                                                                                                                        DOI: 10.1007/BF01064548Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                        Early example using a latent trajectory model, using Chicago’s neighborhoods between 1930 and 1970.

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                                                                                                                                                        • Groff, Elizabeth, David Weisburd, and Sue-Ming Yang. 2010. Is it important to examine crime trends at a local micro level? A longitudinal analysis of street to street variability in crime trajectories. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 26.1: 7–32.

                                                                                                                                                          DOI: 10.1007/s10940-009-9081-ySave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                          This study finds that trajectories of crime at individual street segments operate independent of the street segments in the adjacent areas, suggesting crime trends should be examined on a micro-geographic level

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                                                                                                                                                          • Harries, Keith D. 2004. Violence change and cohort trajectories: Baltimore neighborhoods, 1990–2000. Urban Geography 25.1: 14–30.

                                                                                                                                                            DOI: 10.2747/0272-3638.25.1.14Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                            Studies the change in violence rates as well as population structure across tracts in Baltimore from 1990 to 2000.

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                                                                                                                                                            • Kikuchi, George, and Scott A. Desmond. 2010. A longitudinal analysis of neighborhood crime rates using latent growth curve modeling. Sociological Perspectives 53.1: 127–150.

                                                                                                                                                              DOI: 10.1525/sop.2010.53.1.127Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                              Using a latent trajectory growth model, this study finds that changes in neighborhood disadvantage between 1992 and 2006 were linked to both changes in burglary and vehicle theft over time, but changes in residential stability had no impact on these crimes.

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                                                                                                                                                              • Kubrin, Charis E., and Jerald R. Herting. 2003. Neighborhood correlates of homicide trends: An analysis using growth-curve modeling. Sociological Quarterly 44.3: 329–350.

                                                                                                                                                                DOI: 10.1111/j.1533-8525.2003.tb00536.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                Performs trajectory model analyses of three homicide types for tracts in St. Louis from 1980 to 1994.

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                                                                                                                                                                • Skardhamar, T. 2010. Distinguishing facts and artifacts in group-based modeling. Criminology 48:295–320.

                                                                                                                                                                  DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2010.00185.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                  This study discusses the numerous methodological and interpretational issues that surround techniques that cluster trajectories into classes. Although these techniques are often portrayed as tests of theory, they are in fact exploratory approaches.

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                                                                                                                                                                  • Weisburd, David, Shawn Bushway, Cynthia Lum, and Sue-Ming Yang. 2004. Trajectories of crime at places: A longitudinal study of street segments in the city of Seattle. Criminology 42.2: 283–322.

                                                                                                                                                                    DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2004.tb00521.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                    Using trajectory analysis to examine the distributions of crime in Seattle over a fourteen-year period, this study finds that only a small proportion of places had either increasing or decreasing trajectories of crime, thus implying that a relatively small number of places drives overall crime trends across cities.

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                                                                                                                                                                    • Yang, Sue-Ming. 2010. Assessing the spatial-temporal relationship between disorder and violence. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 26.1: 139–163.

                                                                                                                                                                      DOI: 10.1007/s10940-009-9085-7Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                      This study finds that disorder tends to be clustered in “hot spots,” but these “hot spots” of disorder only predict violence about a third of the time, while the absence of disorder was predictive of places having no violence.

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                                                                                                                                                                      Spatial Dynamics

                                                                                                                                                                      Research on spatial effects involves accounting for the geographical positioning of places. Neighborhoods are not insular units; rather they are embedded near other neighborhoods and within places, which have their own structural characteristics that may affect what happens in the neighborhood. Studies including spatial effects quantify the proximity of neighborhoods to one another in an effort to determine whether the characteristics of one neighborhood affect another. Brantingham and Brantingham 1981 outlines various contexts in which scholars should account for the spatial distribution of crime, whereas Georges-Abeyie and Harries 1980 discusses various approaches used to examine the spatial effects of adult and juvenile crime. Heitgerd and Bursik 1987 examines how changes in adjacent areas may affect delinquency rates, whereas Walsh and Taylor 2007 finds a diffusion effect for motor vehicle thefts. Sampson and Morenoff 2006 posits that concentrated poverty is relatively stable over time. Cohen and Tita 1999 examines the spatial diffusion of gang and nongang homicides, and Morenoff, et al. 2001 investigates the role of spatial embeddedness on violent crime across neighborhoods in Chicago. Finally, Galster, et al. 2003 suggests that poverty rates in neighborhoods are impacted by changes in the broader context within which these areas are located, while Groff, et al. 2009 asserts that variability among crime in block groups and tracts suggests focusing on smaller units, such as street blocks.

                                                                                                                                                                      • Brantingham, Paul J., and Patricia Brantingham, eds. 1981. Environmental criminology. Beverly Hills, CA: SAGE.

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                                                                                                                                                                        A collection of essays examining criminal patterns within the built environment, including the spatial distribution of offenses and offenders.

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                                                                                                                                                                        • Cohen, Jacqueline, and George Tita. 1999. Diffusion in homicide: Exploring a general method for detecting spatial diffusion processes. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 15.4: 451–493.

                                                                                                                                                                          DOI: 10.1023/A:1007596225550Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                          Examines the spatial diffusion of gang and nongang homicides across cities, finding some support that homicide risk can be diffused to new locations.

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                                                                                                                                                                          • Galster, George C., Roberto Quercia, Alvaro Cortes, and Ron Malega. 2003. The fortunes of poor neighborhoods. Urban Affairs Review 39:205–227.

                                                                                                                                                                            DOI: 10.1177/1078087403254493Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                            Examines US metropolitan neighborhoods to identify factors associated with increases or decreases in poverty between 1980 and 1990. This study finds that although a neighborhood’s initial poverty rate impacts changes in its poverty rate over time, it is the economic characteristics of the broader areas within which these neighborhoods are embedded that are the most significant predictor of increasing poverty.

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                                                                                                                                                                            • Georges-Abeyie, Daniel E., and Keith D. Harries, eds. 1980. Crime: A spatial perspective. New York: Columbia Univ. Press.

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                                                                                                                                                                              A collection of essays using various spatial approaches to examine adult and juvenile crime.

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                                                                                                                                                                              • Groff, Elizabeth, David Weisburd, and Nancy A. Morris. 2009. Where the action is at places: Examining spatio-temporal patterns of juvenile crime at places using trajectory analysis and GIS. In Putting crime in its place: Units of analysis in geographic criminology. Edited by D. Weisburd, W. Bernasco, and G. J. N. Bruinsma, 61–86. New York: Springer.

                                                                                                                                                                                DOI: 10.1007/978-0-387-09688-9Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                Combines longitudinal and geographic analyses in a study of street blocks in Seattle. The authors argue that the variability of crime patterns among the street blocks within larger units of analysis such as block groups or tracts argues for focusing on these smaller units.

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                                                                                                                                                                                • Heitgerd, Janet L., and Robert J. Bursik Jr. 1987. Extracommunity dynamics and the ecology of delinquency. American Journal of Sociology 92.4: 775–787.

                                                                                                                                                                                  DOI: 10.1086/228582Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                  This study analyzes the effects of racial change in adjacent areas on delinquency rates, finding that stable, organized communities may experience increases in delinquency when surrounding neighborhoods undergo sudden racial change.

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                                                                                                                                                                                  • Morenoff, Jeffrey D., Robert J. Sampson, and Stephen W. Raudenbush. 2001. Neighborhood inequality, collective efficacy, and the spatial dynamics of urban violence. Criminology 39.3: 517–560.

                                                                                                                                                                                    DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2001.tb00932.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                    This study examines the role of spatial embeddedness, neighborhood structural characteristics, and social processes in explaining variations in violence across neighborhoods, finding that proximity to violence, collective efficacy, and economic inequality were associated with differences in neighborhood homicide rates.

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                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sampson, Robert J., and Jeffrey D. Morenoff. 2006. Durable inequality: Spatial dynamics, social processes, and the persistence of poverty in Chicago neighborhoods. In Poverty traps. Edited by Samuel Bowles, Steven N. Durlauf, and Karla Hoff, 176–203. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.

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                                                                                                                                                                                      An analysis of the spatial concentration of poverty over time using neighborhood change in Chicago from 1970 to 1990 as a case study, this paper finds that poverty increased in already impoverished neighborhoods in 1970, implying that concentrated poverty is self-reinforcing; the self-referential nature of concentrated poverty is explained by social processes in the neighborhood itself, such as levels of collective efficacy and cynicism.

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                                                                                                                                                                                      • Walsh, Jeffrey A., and Ralph B. Taylor. 2007. Predicting decade-long changes in community motor vehicle theft rates: Impacts of structure and surround. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 44.1: 64–90.

                                                                                                                                                                                        DOI: 10.1177/0022427806295552Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                        Studies the change in motor vehicle theft from 1990 to 2000 in block groups in one midwestern city. Also tests whether the spatial lag of motor vehicle theft affects crime ten years later.

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                                                                                                                                                                                        Unit of Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                        The general issue of the proper unit of analysis when measuring neighborhoods is an active area of research. One body of research has focused on drilling down to very small ecological units such as street blocks. Notable examples of this research are the edited volume Weisburd, et al. 2009 and Braga and Weisburd 2010, the special issue of Journal of Quantitative Criminology in March 2010. Hipp 2007 points out that the proper aggregation for structural characteristics may vary depending on the process being measured. Land, et al. 1990 is a classic study testing for aggregation invariance across larger units of analysis when focusing on homicide trends.

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Braga, Anthony A., and David L. Weisburd, eds. 2010. Special issue: Journal of Quantitative Criminology 26.1.

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                                                                                                                                                                                          Edited volume containing contributions focusing on measuring micro-units over time.

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                                                                                                                                                                                          • Hipp, John R. 2007. Block, tract, and levels of aggregation: Neighborhood structure and crime and disorder as a case in point. American Sociological Review 72:659–680.

                                                                                                                                                                                            DOI: 10.1177/000312240707200501Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                            This study highlights the importance of considering the proper level of aggregation when estimating neighborhood effects. It tests the effect of aggregating household characteristics to the local micro-neighborhood or broader census tract on overall perceptions of crime and disorder. The conclusion is that theory is needed to guide the selection of the proper geographic unit of analysis for measuring various structural characteristics.

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                                                                                                                                                                                            • Land, Kenneth C., Patricia McCall, and Lawrence E. Cohen. 1990. Structural covariates of homicide rates: Are there any invariances across time and space? American Journal of Sociology 95:922–963.

                                                                                                                                                                                              DOI: 10.1086/229381Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                              This study examines and critiques inconsistencies in prior research investigating homicide trends over time. Using a principal components analysis, the authors find three structural indexes/covariates that are time invariant and strongly account for homicides across all three time periods analyzed.

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                                                                                                                                                                                              • Weisburd, David, Wim Bernasco, and Gerben Bruinsma, eds. 2009. Putting crime in its place: Units of analysis in geographic criminology. New York: Springer.

                                                                                                                                                                                                DOI: 10.1007/978-0-387-09688-9Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                Nice edited volume with contributions focusing on measuring micro-units over time.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                Seasonality and Crime

                                                                                                                                                                                                Criminologists have long examined the role of seasonality on crime, positing that criminal activity is likely to be more frequent during warmer times of the year. This has profound implications for cities: cities located in warmer climates would be susceptible to higher rates of crime for longer periods of time compared to cities located in less temperate climates. A considerable amount of research has examined whether seasonality is associated with changes in crime rates. Hipp, et al. 2004 tests for seasonality using a novel statistical technique and finds that routine activities theory seems to be the most plausible explanation, whereas Cohn and Rotton 1997 and Farrell and Pease 1994 use calls for service to determine whether a seasonal effect exists. Field 1992 and Landau and Fridman 1993 present evidence for a seasonal effect and show that evidence exists indicating that these seasonal changes influence both property and violent crime.

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Cohn, Ellen G., and James Rotton. 1997. Assaults as a function of time and temperature: A moderator-variable time-series analysis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 72.6: 1322–1334.

                                                                                                                                                                                                  DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.72.6.1322Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Study finds significant seasonal effects for crime rates using Minneapolis calls to the police in 1987–1988.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Farrell, Graham, and Kenneth Pease. 1994. Crime seasonality—domestic disputes and residential burglary in Merseyside 1988–90. British Journal of Criminology 34.4: 487–498.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                    Study finds seasonal effects based on calls to police in Merseyside for a three-year period.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Field, Simon. 1992. The effect of temperature on crime. British Journal of Criminology 32.3: 340–351.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                      Study finds seasonal and temperature effects on property and violent crime rates in England and Wales.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Hipp, John R., Daniel J. Bauer, Patrick J. Curran, and Kenneth A. Bollen. 2004. Crimes of opportunity or crimes of emotion: Testing two explanations of seasonal change in crime. Social Forces 82.4: 1333–1372.

                                                                                                                                                                                                        DOI: 10.1353/sof.2004.0074Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Introduces a novel random effects model with a random cosine function to test and find strong seasonal effects for both property crime and violent crime in US cities from 1990 to 1992, a finding most consistent with routine activities theory.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Landau, Simha F., and Daniel Fridman. 1993. The seasonality of violent crime: The case of robbery and homicide in Israel. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 30.2: 163–191.

                                                                                                                                                                                                          DOI: 10.1177/0022427893030002003Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Uses an ARIMA model with monthly data to test for seasonal effects.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                          Deterrence and Crime

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Deterrence theory refers to the prevention of crime through the fear of retribution or punishment. In other words, potential offenders must believe that the costs associated with committing a particular crime outweigh the benefits of doing so. Broken windows theory (Wilson and Kelling 1982; Kelling and Coles 1996) asserts that signs of neighborhood neglect and disorder, left unchecked, can result in an escalation to major crime in a neighborhood. From a policy perspective, deterrence is achieved when a potential offender is deterred from engaging in criminal behavior after observing the (public) punishment of other criminal actors. Cousineau 1973 offers an early critique of the ecological deterrence literature. From the neighborhood change perspective, deterrence policies are often implemented in high crime neighborhoods with the goal of decreasing crime over time. A few comprehensive studies have examined the long-term effects of such efforts. Corman and Mocan 2000 analyzes the impact of policing on crime trends in New York across thirty years. Rosenfeld, et al. 2007 evaluates the effects of order maintenance policing on robbery and homicide trends. Finally, Skogan 1990 provides a comprehensive overview of the impact of several policing strategies.

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Corman, Hope, and H. Naci Mocan. 2000. A time-series analysis of crime, deterrence, and drug abuse in New York City. American Economic Review 90.3: 584–604.

                                                                                                                                                                                                            DOI: 10.1257/aer.90.3.584Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Using monthly observations over thirty years in New York City, this study examines the impact of policing on crime trends across police precincts.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Cousineau, Douglas F. 1973. A critique of the ecological approach to the study of deterrence. Social Science Quarterly 54:152–157.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                              Critiques the empirical strategies undertaken by researchers studying deterrence through an ecological lens. The author takes issue with four dimensions of the research: failing to differentiate between general and specific deterrence, failing to appropriately account for time lag, failing to select an appropriate base population, and failing to utilize homogeneous units of analysis.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Kelling, George, and Catherine Coles. 1996. Fixing broken windows: Restoring order and reducing crime in our communities. New York: Martin Kessler Books.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                A full-length monograph exposition of the broken windows theory.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Rosenfeld, Richard, Robert Fornango, and Andres F. Rengifo. 2007. The impact of order-maintenance policing on New York City homicide and robbery rates: 1988–2001. Criminology 45.2: 355–384.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2007.00081.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Examines the effects of order-maintenance policing on robbery and homicide trends in New York City over a fourteen-year time period.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Skogan, Wesley G. 1990. Disorder and decline: Crime and the spiral of decay in American neighborhoods. New York: Free Press.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                    A full-length monograph examining various community policing and order maintenance initiatives on neighborhood crime.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Wilson, James Q., and George Kelling. 1982. Broken windows: The police and neighborhood safety. Atlantic Monthly, March, 29–38.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Key paper spelling out the broken windows theory.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Public Policy Initiatives

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      A number of public policies have been implemented to better understand the influence neighborhoods may exert on individual behaviors and characteristics. Two such policy initiatives, the Gautreaux program and Moving to Opportunity (MTO), involved the relocation of poor, inner-city residents to more affluent suburbs or to low-income mostly black urban areas. A number of studies have examined the effectiveness of these policies. In their evaluations of the Gautreaux program, Rosenbaum 1995 and Popkin, et al. 1993 find that residents who were relocated to suburban areas experienced improvements in both employment and education. Results from the Moving to Opportunity program found that suburban movers had lower rates of crime compared to urban movers. Kling, et al. 2007 finds improvements in both crime and health outcomes among suburban movers, while Kling, et al. 2005 presents evidence suggesting that although females who were relocated to the suburbs experienced lower rates of both violent and property crime, relocated males only experienced lower rates of violent crime but not property crime. From these experiments, Ludwig and Kling 2007 concludes that racial segregation is an important consideration in accounting for variation in crime rates across neighborhoods, and Ludwig, et al. 2008 asserts that neighborhood mobility has no long-term effects on adult economic outcomes. However, Clampet-Lundquist and Massey 2008 contests these findings, citing methodological concerns. Sampson 2008 underscores the importance of understanding the social processes involved in mobility decisions. In a study of the effects of a gun violence reduction program, Papachristos, et al. 2007 employs growth curve modeling.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Clampet-Lundquist, Susan, and Douglas S. Massey. 2008. Neighborhood effects on economic self-sufficiency: A reconsideration of the Moving to Opportunity experiment. American Journal of Sociology 114:107–143.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        DOI: 10.1086/588740Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        A strong critique of the MTO experimental design. It argues that selectivity is potentially present at several stages of the study design. The authors propose measuring neighborhood effects based on cumulative exposure.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Kling, Jeffrey, Jeffrey Liebman, and Lawrence F. Katz. 2007. Experimental analysis of neighborhood effects. Econometrica 75.1: 83–119.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00733.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Using data from the Moving to Opportunity program, this study examines the effects of neighborhoods on socioeconomic, crime, and health outcomes for both adults and juveniles.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kling, Jeffrey, Jens Ludwig, and Lawrence F. Katz. 2005. Neighborhood effects on crime for female and male youth: Evidence from a randomized housing voucher experiment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 120:87–130.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                            This study examines neighborhood effects on juvenile crime and delinquency, finding that females relocated to neighborhoods with lower rates of poverty and crime had lower levels of criminal behavior; although relocated males had lower rates of violent crime, rates of property crime and other problem behaviors increased.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ludwig, Jens, and Jeffrey R. Kling. 2007. Is crime contagious? Journal of Law and Economics 50.3: 491–518.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              DOI: 10.1086/519807Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              This research finds very little evidence to support the notion that criminal behavior is contagious; rather, the results suggest that racial segregation in neighborhoods is an important factor in accounting for the variation in crime across neighborhoods.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Ludwig, Jens, Jeffrey B. Liebman, Jeffrey R. Kling, Greg J. Duncan, Lawrence F. Katz, Ronald C. Kessler, and Lisa Sanbonmatsu. 2008. What can we learn about neighborhood effects from the Moving to Opportunity experiment? American Journal of Sociology 114:144–188.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                DOI: 10.1086/588741Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Argues that the MTO experiments achieved large changes in neighborhood environments for participants and therefore are informative about neighborhood effects. The authors conclude there is no evidence from MTO that neighborhood mobility affects economic self-sufficiency four to seven years later.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Papachristos, Andrew V., Tracey L. Meares, and Jeffrey Fagan. 2007. Attention felons: Evaluating Project Safe Neighborhoods in Chicago. Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 4.2: 223–272.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-1461.2007.00096.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  An evaluation of the Project Safe Neighborhoods initiative, this study examines whether violent crime declined in the treatment neighborhoods; the results find that crime declined across all beats, but sharper declines were detected in the experimental group.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Popkin, Susan J., James E. Rosenbaum, and Patricia M. Meaden. 1993. Labor market experiences of low-income black women in middle-class suburbs: Evidence from a survey of Gautreaux program participants. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 12.3: 556–573.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    DOI: 10.2307/3325306Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Using data from the Gautreaux program in which African American families were randomly relocated from urban public housing facilities, this study finds that participants relocated to middle-income white suburbs were more likely to be employed compared to those relocated to low-income, predominantly African American urban areas. The authors discuss the implications of this policy relative to other public policies, such as welfare-to-work.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Rosenbaum, James E. 1995. Changing the geography of opportunity by expanding residential choice: Lessons from the Gautreaux program. Housing Policy Debate 6.1: 231–269.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      This study found that adults who were relocated to suburban areas experienced increasing employment and employment opportunities compared to adults relocated to inner-city areas; further, juveniles relocated to suburban areas experienced improvement in education and employment prospects compared to juveniles who moved to city areas.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sampson, Robert J. 2008. Moving to inequality: Neighborhood effects and experiments meet social structure. American Journal of Sociology 114:189–231.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        DOI: 10.1086/589843Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Argues that rather than being a methodological nuisance, the selection process is actually a social process that should be of primary interest to researchers. Understanding mobility decisions therefore has consequences for the neighborhoods that residents experience and how those neighborhoods change.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Methodological Issues

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        There are several challenges associated with the measurement and analysis of neighborhood change data, including issues with endogeneity and simultaneity. Many indicators of neighborhood structural characteristics are highly correlated with one another and with crime. These factors are interrelated and affect each other—in other words, many neighborhood indicators simultaneously affect each other. This can complicate the ability of researchers to tease apart the individual effects of any one indicator. Tienda 1991 discusses the challenges of separating selection and influence, whereas Jencks and Mayer 1990 discusses the challenges of separating contextual from compositional effects. This can also complicate the measurement of particular constructs. Blasius, et al. 2009 provides a comprehensive overview regarding the measurement of various neighborhood effects as well as how to utilize various statistical techniques to overcome the complications of parsing out individual effects. Dahlbäck 1998 proposes a nonlinear modeling approach that allows combining the insights of both social disorganization and routine activity theories. Griffiths and Chavez 2004 proposes an exploratory approach that clusters neighborhoods into different groups based on their trajectories of disadvantage and homicide over time. Harding 2003 provides a methodological approach that attempts to estimate causal effects. Sobel 2006 discusses the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA), which poses particular challenges for neighborhood studies. Cloninger and Marchesini 1995 develops an approach for examining changes in crime in individual communities.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Blasius, Jörg, Jürgen Friedrichs, and George Galster, eds. 2009. Quantifying neighbourhood effects: Frontiers and perspectives. London and New York: Routledge.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          A collection of essays presenting research on different ways to quantify and analyze neighborhood effects.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cloninger, Dale O., and Roberto Marchesini. 1995. Crime betas: A portfolio measure of criminal activity. Social Science Quarterly 76.3: 634–647.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Proposes an approach that compares the percentage change in a specific crime measure occurring in a neighborhood to the percentage change occurring in some larger aggregation.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dahlbäck, Olof. 1998. Modelling the influence of societal factors on municipal theft rates in Sweden: Methodological concerns and substantive findings. Acta Sociologica 41:37–57.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Uses a nonlinear longitudinal model to view theft rates in Swedish municipalities. Explores various possible interaction effects, and proposes combining routine activity theory with social disorganization.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Griffiths, Elizabeth, and Jorge M. Chavez. 2004. Communities, street guns, and homicide trajectories in Chicago, 1980–1995: Merging methods for examining homicide trends across space and time. Criminology 42.4: 941–978.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2004.tb00541.xSave Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Takes an exploratory approach in clustering Chicago tracts based on their violence trajectories between 1980 and 1995. Explores these effects both temporally and spatially.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Harding, David J. 2003. Counterfactual models of neighborhood effects: The effect of neighborhood poverty on dropping out and teenage pregnancy. American Journal of Sociology 109.3: 676–719.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  DOI: 10.1086/379217Save Citation »Export Citation »E-mail Citation »

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Using counterfactual modeling techniques based on propensity score matching, this study attempts to address the potential effects of endogeneity associated with selection bias. Using these methods, the author finds that the results are robust to selection bias.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Jencks, Christopher, and Susan E. Mayer. 1990. The social consequences of growing up in a poor neighborhood. In Inner-city poverty in the United States. Edited by L. E. Lynn, and M. G. H. McGeary, 111–186. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Points out that “neighborhood effects” may simply be an example of compositional effects in which it is the individual characteristics of persons that matter and not the context in which they exist.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sobel, Michael E. 2006. Spatial concentration and social stratification: Does the clustering of disadvantage “beget” bad outcomes? In Poverty traps. Edited by Samuel Bowles, Steven N. Durlauf, and Karla Hoff, 204–229. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Addresses some of the statistical complications that can occur when examining the effects of neighborhoods on individual outcomes; in particular, the author notes the difficulties associated with large public policy initiatives aimed at relocating poor families to new, more affluent communities, suggesting that the communities themselves have been altered as a result of this change, affecting individual outcomes.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Tienda, Marta. 1991. Poor people and poor places: Deciphering neighborhood effects on poverty outcomes. In Macro-micro linkages in sociology. Edited by J. Huber, 244–262. Newbury Park, CA: SAGE.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Discusses the challenges of disentangling selection effects from neighborhood influence effects.

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